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China Lockdown May Have Blocked 700,000 Coronavirus Cases – Research

 

China’s determination to lock down town of Wuhan, floor zero for the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, might have prevented greater than 700,000 new circumstances by delaying the unfold of the virus, researchers stated Tuesday.

China’s determination to lock down town of Wuhan, floor zero for the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, might have prevented greater than 700,000 new circumstances by delaying the unfold of the virus, researchers stated Tuesday.

Drastic Chinese language management measures within the first 50 days of the epidemic purchased different cities throughout the nation invaluable time to organize and set up their very own restrictions, in response to the paper by researchers in China, the USA and the UK, printed within the journal Science.

By day 50 of the epidemic — February 19 — there have been 30,000 confirmed circumstances in China, stated Oxford fellow Christopher Dye, one of many paper’s authors.

“Our analysis suggests that without the Wuhan travel ban and the national emergency response there would have been more than 700,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of Wuhan by that date,” he was quoted as saying in a press launch.

“China’s control measures appear to have worked by successfully breaking the chain of transmission — preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people.”

The researchers used a mixture of case reviews, public well being info and cell phone location monitoring to research the unfold of the virus.

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The cellphone monitoring supplied a “fascinating” new stream of information, stated one other of the report’s authors, Penn State biology professor Ottar Bjornstad.

The time interval they studied encompassed China’s greatest vacation, the Lunar New 12 months.

The researchers “were able to compare patterns of travel into and out of Wuhan during the outbreak with cell phone data from two previous spring festivals,” Bjornstad stated.

“The analysis revealed an extraordinary reduction in movement following the travel ban of January 23, 2020. Based on this data, we could also calculate the likely reduction in Wuhan-associated cases in other cities across China.”

The Wuhan shutdown delayed the arrival of the virus in different cities, their mannequin confirmed, giving them time to organize by banning public gatherings and shutting leisure venues, amongst different measures.

Practically half of humanity has now been informed to remain residence to curb the unfold of the virus, and lockdowns are quickly changing into normalized.

However when Beijing first shut down Wuhan greater than two months in the past, the choice was seen as a dramatic escalation within the battle towards an infection.

With the restrictions within the metropolis slowly being lifted and life inching nearer to regular, the query for China — and different nations across the globe — is what is going to occur as soon as motion resumes.

“We are acutely aware that resident or imported infections could lead to a resurgence of transmission,” stated one other of the report’s authors, Huaiyu Tian, an affiliate professor of epidemiology at Beijing Regular College.

AFP

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